Virtus: 2026 Predictions for Carbon Markets, Climate Finance, and Impact
Welcome to the December edition of our Virtus newsletter!
As 2025 draws toward a close, climate finance is entering a sharper, more consequential phase. Political progress may be uneven coming out of COP30 in Belém, but the markets themselves are clearly in motion – reshaped by integrity reforms, new compliance pathways, fast-evolving impact strategies, and growing private capital flows into transition and resilience solutions.
In Our Take, Jay and Sean look ahead in Impact 2026 Predictions, outlining how carbon markets and climate finance are shifting from repair mode to structural redesign. Using our six-pillar IMPACT framework – Integrity, Momentum, Prices, Achievement, Collaboration, and Targets – we unpack what 2026 may hold as markets mature, scale, and confront the realities of delivery.
This month’s Untangling Climate Finance features Madeleine Carnemark of the VCM+ Coalition, who joins Jay for a candid conversation on the push toward a verified, high-integrity global carbon market. Madeleine explores how governance, transparency, and credibility can unlock demand at scale, and why integrity and growth must advance together.
In What We’re Absorbing, we span science, storytelling, and market history – a stark warning on deep-sea mining’s ripple effects through midwater food webs; a buoyant documentary where high-school activists expose environmental injustice; a deeply personal look at the pioneers who helped create carbon markets; and a data-driven reality check on the water and carbon footprint of America’s rapidly expanding AI infrastructure.
And in Climate Finance Deals, we track significant capital moving into climate solutions—from regenerative agriculture and methane abatement to Europe’s accelerating investment in zero-emission transport infrastructure.
Happy holidays to all!
Gordian Knot Strategies
We are Igniting Climate Solutions: Mobilizing $1 Billion Per Year in Impact Investment by 2030!
Written by: Jay Tipton & Sean Penrith
As we look ahead to 2026, carbon markets and climate finance more broadly are moving from a period of rebuilding to one of structural reshaping. COP30 in Belém concluded with limited political progress, yet markets themselves continue to evolve through integrity reforms, the expansion of compliance frameworks, rapid shifts in impact investing, major new blended-finance initiatives, and increased flows of private capital into transition and resilience solutions. Drawing on developments across 2025, we outline our predictions for 2026 across our six IMPACT pillar framework.
IMPACT stands for – Integrity, Momentum, Prices, Achievement, Collaboration, and Targets.
To read the rest of this paper, click here.
Client Served in the United States:
A U.S.-based research institute contracted us in 2018 to deliver our Climate Solutions Strategy & Advisory Services to develop a comprehensive go-to-market business plan and provide a clear path for the launch of program pilots and a national level market-based program that monetized ecosystem services generated by farmers and ranchers on private agricultural working lands. Ecosystems services incorporated natural resource conservation, preservation and restoration; climate change mitigation, adaptation, and resilience. This payment-against-outcomes program was designed to improve environmental outcomes associated with soil health and nutrient management on agricultural lands. The mission statement for this pioneering program was to advance ecosystem service markets that incentivize farmers and ranchers to improve soil health systems that benefit society. The program is now up and successfully running, delivering against its mandate.
“Gordian Knot Strategies exceeded expectations in all aspects of our engagement – experience, judgment, intelligence, diligence, and efficiency. GKS brought all these and more to provide deliverables we never could have developed on our own.”
Mark McPherson – Executive Director, City Forest Credits
🎙️ In this episode, Madeleine Carnemark, Director, VCM+ Coalition, Carbon Policy and Markets Initiative at the High Tide Foundation, explains how carbon markets are shifting from a voluntary system to a verified, high-integrity global market. She discusses the coalition’s work to strengthen governance, improve transparency, unlock corporate demand, and build trust, while emphasizing why integrity and scale must move together to deliver real climate impact.
Click any of the links below to listen!
Below is a curated selection of standout opportunities brought to you by GKS’s valued clients.
City Forest Credits, the U.S. nonprofit urban forestry carbon standard, is offering high-integrity carbon credits from more than 65 projects operated by 30+ nonprofit and municipal partners across 20+ American cities. Current supply includes 185,000+ avoidance credits and 36,400+ removal credits, all issued ex-post under CFC’s ICROA-endorsed standard.
Two standout projects include:
Buena Vista Heights Preservation Project (Pittsburgh, PA)
Awarded BeZero’s first-ever “A” rating for any avoided deforestation project globally — placing it in the top 1% of carbon projects worldwide.
Available: 2,646 avoidance credits
Callen Property Project (Monongalia County, WV)
Rated “A” by Calyx Global, recognizing strong greenhouse gas integrity and high confidence in delivered climate benefits.
Available: 4,394 avoidance credits
To learn more or request project details, contact us at: jtipton@gordianknotstrategies.com.
Savory Foundation: Carbon Removal Credits – Uruguay Grasslands Regeneration Project
The Savory Foundation along with the Savory Institute, Pampa Oriental, and Cultivo are now offering nature-based carbon removal credits from their Uruguay Grasslands Regeneration Project. This groundbreaking project spans 115,00 hectares, employing Savory’s Holistic Management framework to restore grasslands while supporting local communities and ecosystems.
The project, under Verra’s VM0032 Methodology for Sustainable Grasslands, anticipates an annual issuance of around 152,000 credits, beginning in 2026, and addresses the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals – 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth, 13: Climate Action, 15: Life of Land, and 17: Partnership for the Goals.
To learn more about this project and its impact, click here.
If you want to connect about the project, email us here.
This month, we’re diving into bold new insights on biomass carbon removal in California, breakthrough research on peatland vulnerability (special nod to Jay’s peatland roots), and a strategic look at how carbon pricing could empower Small Island States in global climate markets.
✍️ In Drought-induced peatland carbon loss exacerbated by elevated CO₂ and warming (Quan Quan et al.), researchers show that extreme droughts – when combined with warming and elevated CO2 – dramatically accelerate peatland carbon loss. Experimental plots experiencing high heat and CO2 saw up to nearly 4x greater carbon release than baseline conditions, driven by lower water tables and increased plant-derived carbon fueling decomposition. The results highlight a critical feedback risk: climate change could weaken peatlands’ role as carbon sinks just when they matter most – a finding of particular interest given Jay’s master’s research focus on peatland ecosystems.
✍️ In Exploring Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage Scenarios for California (Clean Air Task Force), researchers assess how the state could meet its 2045 carbon removal goal through biomass-based CDR pathways that tap agricultural and forest residues. The report finds that BiCRS could deliver 13–75 million metric tons of CO2e annual removals without competing with food production – while boosting rural economies, supporting wildfire resilience, and offering scalable, cost-effective pathways within a diverse CDR portfolio.
✍️ Carbon pricing emerges as a potential transformative tool for Small Island Developing States in the UNFCCC’s Regional Dialogue on Carbon Pricing for SIDS report. The analysis emphasizes that well-designed pricing systems – supported by Article 6 cooperation, sustained capacity building, and strong MRV systems – could boost resilience, unlock climate finance, and accelerate low-carbon development. Success hinges on international partnerships and national ownership to ensure equity, environmental integrity, and alignment with SIDS’ priorities.
This month’s climate finance deals span major U.S. grid and nuclear investments, strategic tech funding in Europe, and expanding public–private capital mobilization – all reinforcing the critical role of infrastructure, innovation, and energy security in the global climate transition. Click the titles for links.
US Awards $1.6 Billion Loan for AEP Transmission Projects
The U.S. government has approved a $1.6B loan guarantee for American Electric Power to modernize 5,000 miles of transmission lines across five states – boosting grid capacity and reliability. The financing highlights continued federal support for large-scale infrastructure projects that enable cleaner energy integration and strengthen climate-aligned grid resilience.
US Strikes $80 billion Deal for New Nuclear Power Plants
The U.S. has struck an $80B partnership to build new nuclear reactors with Westinghouse and its Canadian owners, signaling a major federal push to expand clean baseload power. With government-backed financing and profit-sharing terms, the deal underscores nuclear’s growing role in climate-aligned energy strategy — especially as AI-driven electricity demand rises and next-generation reactors gain momentum.
Wallenbergs in Talks to Back €5 Billion Europe Tech Fund
While not directly a climate initiative, the EU’s planned €5B Scale-Up Fund to back AI, quantum and semiconductor firms has clear climate linkages. By bolstering strategic deep-tech industries and prioritizing clean-energy technologies among its targets, the fund aims to strengthen Europe’s competitiveness — and indirectly accelerate climate innovation through next-gen computing, advanced materials, and energy-efficiency breakthroughs critical to the transition.
At Gordian Knot Strategies, our goal is to help mobilize $1 billion per year in climate finance. That is why we’re committed to making climate finance smarter and faster by addressing a broken impact investing screening process. That’s why we built Traro®, a predictive analytics platform designed to help investors rapidly triage opportunities with clarity, consistency, and confidence.
We recently hosted a live webinar focused on leveraging Traro® for more effective impact investing screening. If you weren’t able to attend, the recording link can be found here.
For those interested in further exploring these best practices, a free guide is available – Smarter Climate Investing: 7 Strategic Filters Before Your First Impact Dollar – which distills actionable lessons learned for screening climate projects using seven essential criteria.
If your organization is interested in seeing Traro® in action, we’d love to show you how it works. Email us at traro@gordianknotstrategies.com. There’s no cost to access the guide or the demo. Our goal is to equip more investors with tools that unlock real climate impact.
Seeking Impact Investment? Submit your project to Traro®!
We invite project developers to submit their projects for screening on the Traro® Platform at no cost. Based on assessment outcomes, we can match you with interested impact investors (there is no fee). You can find more information and how to create an account on Traro® here.
We are building a global database of impact investors to help mobilize $1 billion annually in climate finance by 2030. If your organization is interested in providing funding for climate or environmental projects, we invite you to fill out our Impact Investor Information Form. Your contact details will remain confidential, and we’ll only connect you with aligned opportunities. There is no fee to participate.
To access the form click here.
Interested in connecting with us on climate finance, impact investment, climate solutions strategy, or carbon credit development and commercialization?
Book a 30-minute conversation with Gordian Knot Strategies here to discuss how we can support your goals.
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