Virtus: Kicking Off 2025 With Bold Predictions
Welcome to our first Virtus newsletter of 2025!
After one month into the new year, our energy and determination to drive climate finance forward is at a full 100%.
In Our Take, the GKS team shares our IMPACT 2025 Predictions for climate finance, carbon markets, and impact investing in the coming year, covering key topics including integrity, momentum, prices, achievement, collaboration, and targets.
On our Untangling Climate Finance podcast, Jay spoke with Peter Stangel, Alicia Cramer, and Trevor Cutsinger from the U.S. Endowment for Forestry and Communities about their innovative Impact Investing Program.
In What We’re Absorbing, Ayana Elizabeth Johnson’s “What If We Get It Right?” offers a hopeful vision for climate futures, while Kim Stanley Robinson’s “The Ministry for the Future” remains a thought-provoking favorite. We also share a recent report on corporate emissions targets that reveals a concerning lack of accountability.
This month’s Opportunity Showcase once again highlights initiatives from the American Forest Foundation, ReSeed, the Savory Foundation, and the U.S. Endowment for Forestry and Communities.
Finally, in Climate Finance Deals, we spotlight major transactions from Bangladesh, the Amazon Rainforest, and the United Kingdom.
2025 has already started off with a lot of ups and downs, but we’re staying optimistic for better months ahead. Thanks for joining us as we explore bold projects and innovative solutions shaping a sustainable future!
All the best,
Gordian Knot Strategies
We are Igniting Climate Solutions: Mobilizing $1 Billion Per Year in Impact Investment by 2030!
IMPACT is back!
As we kick off 2025, we are leaning on our IMPACT framework to share our predictions for the coming year!
The IMPACT acronym highlights key factors shaping the growth and momentum of climate finance, carbon markets, and impact investing and has proven to be a helpful tool in guiding our evaluations and forecasts.
IMPACT stands for:
Integrity, Momentum, Prices, Achievement, Collaboration, and Targets.
To read the rest of this article click here.
Client Served in the United States:
A client enlisted us to participate in a Blue Carbon Finance Feasibility Assessment project calling on our Carbon Credit Development, Acquisition, and Commercialization services. The project was designed to engage and inform key partners in the Pacific Northwest about the potential for carbon financing in tidal wetland restoration and produce a feasibility assessment for the technical aspects of a carbon financing project. We developed materials that addressed the potential actions concerning funding opportunities and local policy, opportunities, and challenges of the actions, a recommended pathway forward to connecting with funders, and some input on the narrative for the final report.
“Gordian Knot Strategies and Sean Penrith’s climate solutions expertise and research were invaluable to Edwards Mother Earth Foundation in helping to launch and guide our agroforestry grant making program.”
Bruce Reed – Operations Director, Edwards Mother Earth Foundation
🎙️ In the first episode of Season 3, Jay sat down with Peter Stangel, Alicia Cramer, and Trevor Cutsinger from the U.S. Endowment for Forestry and Communities to explore their groundbreaking Impact Investing Program. They discussed how this initiative is reshaping forestry and conservation finance by blending financial returns with meaningful environmental and community impacts.
Peter shared the origins and framework of the program, Alicia highlighted success stories like Tanbark’s eco-friendly packaging solutions, and Trevor looked ahead to future opportunities, including scaling through co-investment and addressing challenges like low-value wood utilization.
Click any of the links below to listen!
📚 Some of our team members have enjoyed What If We Get It Right?: Visions of Climate Futures by Ayana Elizabeth Johnson. This inspiring book offers a hopeful look at possible climate futures, blending science, policy, and culture with poetry and art to envision a thriving, sustainable world.
📚 If you’ve been on a call with Sean lately, you’ve probably heard him reference The Ministry for the Future by Kim Stanley Robinson. We spotlighted this novel last year, but it’s worth revisiting. Set in the near future, it explores the bold and sometimes controversial efforts of a global body advocating for future generations amid the escalating impacts of climate change.
✍️ A recent report, Limited Accountability and Awareness of Corporate Emissions Target Outcomes by Xiaoyan Jiang, Shawn Kim, and Shirley Lu, highlights concerning trends in corporate climate pledges. Of 1,041 firms with emissions targets ending in 2020, 9% failed and 31% saw their targets quietly disappear, with minimal accountability or market reaction. This raises critical questions about the credibility of long-term targets for 2030 and 2050. It also highlights the work cut out for us.
Below is a curated selection of standout opportunities brought to you by GKS’s valued clients.
American Forest Foundation: Nature Based Carbon Credits
The American Forest Foundation (AFF) will hold the first auction for the Family Forest Carbon Program’s carbon credits in March 2025.
The American Forest Foundation Carbon Auction — the first of its kind for a U.S. nature-based carbon project — will offer buyers a transparent and streamlined way to secure high-quality carbon credits while supporting rural communities and family forest owners.
To read the full announcement, click here.
To view information on the auction, click here.
ReSeed: Agriculture Carbon Credits
ReSeed partners with smallholder farmers globally, helping to improve livelihoods, protect vital lands, and ensure ecosystem services are properly recognized and rewarded. Through these efforts, ReSeed generates agricultural carbon credits that drive sustainability. Click here to explore their projects.
Savory Foundation: Carbon Removal Credits – Uruguay Grasslands Regeneration Project
The Savory Foundation along with the Savory Institute, Pampa Oriental, and Cultivo are now offering nature-based carbon removal credits from their Uruguay Grasslands Regeneration Project. This groundbreaking project spans 140,000 hectares across 166 privately held properties, employing Savory’s Holistic Management framework to restore grasslands while supporting local communities and ecosystems.
The project, under Verra’s VM0032 Methodology for Sustainable Grasslands, anticipates an annual issuance of around 152,000 credits, beginning in 2026, and addresses the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals – 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth, 13: Climate Action, 15: Life of Land, and 17: Partnership for the Goals.
To learn more about this project and its impact, click here.
If you want to connect about the project, email us here.
U.S. Endowment for Forestry & Communities: Impact Investing Program
The U.S. Endowment for Forestry and Communities has announced an RFP for their Impact Investing Program. The program seeks to deploy up to $5 million in 2024 through impact investments in companies, funds, or projects that advance systemic, transformative, and sustainable benefits for the health and vitality of working forests and forest-reliant communities in the United States.
Gordian Knot Strategies is supporting the development of the Impact Investing Program. We encourage you to read the Endowment’s press release here, review the RFP materials here, and share with your network.
This is a great opportunity for companies and project developers seeking capital on reasonable investment terms. Please note that this is not a grant making endeavor.
Another month, another dollar in the climate finance game. We’re keeping a close eye on the latest deals and where the money’s heading. Click the titles below to explore the standout headlines that grabbed our attention.
Bangladesh and the World Bank have signed financing agreements worth $900 million to boost climate resiliency, green growth, and sustainable urban infrastructure. The $500 million Green and Climate Resilient Development Credit will support policy reforms to improve environmental enforcement, carbon market access, and energy efficiency. The $400 million Resilient Urban and Territorial Development Project will enhance climate-resilient urban infrastructure in seven city clusters, benefiting 17 million people and supporting gender-responsive and sustainable urban growth.
CIF Capital Markets Mechanism (CCMM) Makes Historic Debut with Inaugural $500 Million Bond
The Climate Investment Funds (CIF) Capital Markets Mechanism (CCMM) made its debut with a $500 million bond, supported by a $3 billion orderbook from global investors. The 3-year bond, listed on the London Stock Exchange, aims to accelerate climate funding by leveraging future reflows from CIF’s Clean Technology Fund. Focused on low-carbon technologies, the CCMM channels financing through multilateral development banks to support energy transitions and climate resilience in developing countries.
Silvania Launches $1.5B Initiative To Protect The Amazon
Silvania, backed by Swiss trading house Mercuria, has launched the “Race to Belém” initiative to preserve the Amazon rainforest, aiming to raise $1.5 billion in collaboration with Conservation International and The Nature Conservancy. This project will generate jurisdictional REDD+ carbon credits by working with Brazilian states, farmers, and local communities, with upfront capital incentives of up to $100 million. With deployment starting immediately, the initiative seeks to combat deforestation, generate significant carbon savings, and mark a turning point for Amazonian protection ahead of COP30.
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